Abstract
Previous studies evaluating the association between antidiabetic drugs and the risk of
ischemic stroke have yielded inconsistent results. This study employed a Mendelian randomization (MR)
approach to preliminarily explore the potential causal associations of major antidiabetic drugs with the risk of
ischemic stroke and its subtypes, and performed validation using independent European and Asian population
data. Methods: Genetic variants associated with the targets of sulfonylureas (ABCC8/KCNJ11), GLP-1 analogs
(GLP1R), thiazolidinediones (PPARG), insulin and its analogs (INSR), and metformin were extracted from
published studies as instrumental variables (all instrument F-statistics>10). The primary analysis was conducted
using MEGASTROKE European population data. Inverse variance weighting (IVW) or the Wald ratio method
was used to estimate the causal effects of drug targets on acute ischemic stroke (AIS), large artery atherosclerosis
stroke (LAS), cardioembolic stroke (CES), and small vessel stroke (SVS). External validation consisted of: (1)
validation of overall AIS using independent European population data from FinnGen; (2) an exploratory analysis
of stroke subtypes using GIGASTROKE East Asian population data. This study was exploratory in nature; no
corrections were made for multiple comparisons, and a P-value < 0.05 was used as the statistical criterion for
nominal association. Results: The primary analysis (MEGASTROKE) showed that sulfonylureas (rs757110)
had a nominal association with reduced AIS risk (OR=0.05, 95% CI 0.01-0.29, P=0.001), although the effect was
extreme; metformin showed a suggestive association with LAS (OR=0.47, P=0.047); and the multi-single
nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) instrument for sulfonylureas (KCNJ11/ABCC8) showed a suggestive
association with CES (OR=0.09, P=0.046). External validation: In FinnGen, none of the associations between
the drugs and AIS were statistically significant (rs757110: OR=0.53, P=0.601; all others P>0.05). In the
exploratory analysis of the East Asian population, none of the original positive signals for stroke subtypes
showed a nominal association [metformin with LAS: OR=1.22, P=0.715; sulfonylureas (ABCC8/KCNJ11) with CES: OR=1.68, P=
0.871]; the associations were not replicated, and the confidence intervals were extremely wide, suggesting insufficient statistical power.
Conclusion: The positive signals for antidiabetic drugs on ischemic stroke observed in the primary analysis were not supported by
independent external validation. The extreme protective effect of the sulfonylurea SNP-rs757110 was judged as a false positive. The
suggestive associations of metformin with LAS and sulfonylureas with CES were not replicated in external validation and should be
considered only as exploratory hypotheses. The current genetic evidence does not support the clinical application of any antidiabetic drug
for ischemic stroke or its subtypes.
Key words
ischemic stroke; large artery atherosclerosis; cardioembolic stroke; small vessel stroke; antidiabetic drugs; drug-target
mendelian randomization; external validation
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WAN Mengxia,
YANG Yi, SHEN Shen, GAN Jinghuan, ZHANG Yongbo.
Antidiabetic Drug and Ischemic Stroke: A Mendelian Randomization Study[J]. Neural Injury and Functional Reconstruction. 2026, 21(8): 435-440 https://doi.org/10.16780/j.cnki.sjssgncj.20260698
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