Abstract
To develop and validate a risk prediction model for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in elderly
patients. Methods: A total of 382 elderly patients who visited the Department of Neurology in our hospital
from January 2020 to December 2022 were included in this study. The patients were divided into a model group
(267 cases) and a validation group (115 cases) at a ratio of 7 ∶ 3. Demographics, clinical cognition indicators,
imaging data and laboratory indicators were collected. The model group was further divided into AD and
non-AD subgroups. General information, clinical cognitive indicators, imaging data and laboratory indicators
were compared between the two subgroups. Variables were screened using LASSO regression, followed by
multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram model was developed and validated according to the results of
multivariate analysis. Results: In the model group, 67 out of 267 patients (25.09%) had AD. LASSO regression
identified 10 potential predictors, including age, history of hypertension, family history of AD, RAVLT, FAQ,
hippocampal sulcus ratio, lateral cerebral fissure ratio, apolipoprotein A1, apolipoprotein E, and C-reactive
protein. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, history of hypertension, RAVLT, FAQ,
hippocampal sulcus ratio, apolipoprotein A1, apolipoprotein E and C-reactive protein were independent
predictors (P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the AD risk prediction model for the elderly based on
the model group was 0.968 (95% CI 0.946~0.990). External validation using the validation group showed an
AUC of 0.957 (95% CI 0.932~0.983), which closely aligned with the internal validation results. The calibration
curve indicated a close fit to the standard curve. The decision curve analysis showed that the net benefit rate was
greater than 0 when the probability threshold of the nomograph model for predicting AD in elderly neurology
patients ranged from 0.15 to 0.88. Conclusion: The prevalence of AD in elderly neurology patients is
influenced mainly by factors such as age, history of hypertension, and RAVLT. The nomogram model developed
in this study exhibits high accuracy and discrimination in predicting the risk of AD.
Key words
the elderly
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Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Alzheimer's Disease in Elderly
Patients[J]. Neural Injury and Functional Reconstruction. 2024, 19(7): 392-396
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