Nomogram Risk Prediction Model to Assess Risk of Poor 1-Year Prognosis after Acute Ischemic Stroke

Neural Injury and Functional Reconstruction ›› 2022, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (5) : 254-258.

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Neural Injury and Functional Reconstruction ›› 2022, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (5) : 254-258.
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Nomogram Risk Prediction Model to Assess Risk of Poor 1-Year Prognosis after Acute Ischemic Stroke

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Abstract

To investigate the risk factors of poor prognosis 1 year after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and to establish a nomogram risk prediction model. Methods: Clinical data of AIS patients who were consecutively admitted to 4 tertiary-grade A class hospitals from January to December 2015 were collected through the Xi’an Stroke Data Bank. The patients were followed up for 1 year after diagnosis. Univariate and multivariate Logistic analysis were applied to analyze the risk factors of poor 1-year prognosis. R software and the rms package were used to establish a nomogram risk prediction model for poor 1-year prognosis in AIS patients. Results: Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR=1.069, 95% CI 1.052~ 1.087, P=0.000), complication by pneumonia (OR=3.121, 95% CI 1.595~6.107, P=0.001), leukocyte count (OR=1.137, 95%CI 1.062~1.217, P=0.000), atrial fibrillation (OR=1.816, 95%CI 1.059~3.115, P=0.030), and NIHSS score at admission (OR=1.196, 95%CI 1.153~1.241, P=0.000) were independent risk factors for poor 1-year prognosis of AIS patients in the Xi’an area. Based on the above independent risk factors, a nomogram prediction model was established to predict poor 1-year prognosis in AIS patients. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.846, indicating good discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no significant difference (χ2=12.22, df=8, P=0.142). Conclusion: A nomogram risk prediction model for poor 1-year prognosis in AIS patients was successfully established. This model has good differentiation and calibration.

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acute ischemic stroke

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Nomogram Risk Prediction Model to Assess Risk of Poor 1-Year Prognosis after Acute Ischemic Stroke[J]. Neural Injury and Functional Reconstruction. 2022, 17(5): 254-258
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